One was the Progressive Party, the original constitutional-monarchist party that opposed the Kuomintang during the Second Revolution. The Progressive Party switched their position largely because of Yuan's sabotage of the national parliament. Secondly, many provincial governors who had declared their independence from the Qing Imperial Court in found the idea of supporting another Imperial Court utterly ridiculous. Yuan also alienated his Beiyang generals by centralizing tax collection from local authorities.
In addition, public opinion was overwhelmingly anti-Yuan. In the Japanese set before the government in Beijing the so-called Twenty-One Demands , aimed at securing Japanese economic controls in railway and mining operations in Shandong, Manchuria and Fujian. The Japanese also pressed to have Yuan Shikai appoint Japanese advisors to key positions in the Chinese government.
The Beijing government rejected some of these demands but yielded to the Japanese insistence on keeping the Shandong territory already in its possession. Beijing also recognized Tokyo's authority over southern Manchuria and eastern Inner Mongolia. Yuan's acceptance of the demands was extremely unpopular, but he continued his monarchist agenda nevertheless.
This sent shock waves throughout China, causing widespread rebellion in numerous provinces. Yunnan's declaration of independence also encouraged other southern provinces to declare theirs. Yuan's Beiyang generals, who were already wary of his imperial coronation, did not put up an aggressive campaign against the National Protection Army. On 22 March Yuan formally repudiated monarchy and stepped down as the first and last emperor of his dynasty. He died on 6 June of that year. Duan Qirui as his Premier. Yuan Shikai's imperial ambitions finally ended with the return of republican government.
After Yuan Shikai's death, shifting alliances of regional warlords fought for control of the Beijing government. Despite the fact that various warlords gained control of the government in Beijing during the warlord era, this did not constitute a new era of control or governance, because other warlords did not acknowledge the transitory governments in this period and were a law unto themselves. These military-dominated governments were collectively known as the Beiyang Government.
The warlord era is considered by some historians to have ended in The Provisional Constitution was reinstated and the parliament convened. Since the outbreak of the war, China had remained neutral until the United States urged all neutral countries to join the Allies , as a condemnation of Germany's use of unrestricted submarine warfare.
Premier Duan Qirui was particularly interested in joining the Allies as an opportunity to secure loans from Japan to build up his Anhui clique army. The two factions in the parliament engaged in ugly debates regarding the entry of China and, in May , Li Yuanhong dismissed Duan Qirui from his government. This led provincial military governors loyal to Duan to declare independence and to call for Li Yuanhong to step down as President.
Li Yuanhong summoned Zhang Xun to mediate the situation. Zhang Xun had been a general serving the Qing Court and was by this time the military governor of Anhui province. He had his mind on restoring Puyi Xuantong Emperor to the imperial throne. Zhang was supplied with funds and weapons through the German legation, which was eager to keep China neutral. On 1 July , Zhang officially proclaimed the restoration of Qing dynasty and requested that Li Yuanhong give up his presidency, which Li promptly rejected. Duan Qirui led his army and defeated Zhang Xun's restoration forces in Beijing.
One of Duan's airplanes bombed the Forbidden City, in what was possibly the first aerial bombardment in East Asia. The Manchu restoration ended almost as soon as it began. During this period of confusion, Vice President Feng Guozhang, also a Beiyang general, assumed the post of Acting President of the republic and took his oath of office in Nanjing.
Duan Qirui resumed his post as the Premier.
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The Zhili clique of Feng Guozhang and the Anhui clique of Duan Qirui emerged as the most powerful cliques following the restoration affair. Duan Qirui's triumphant return to Beijing essentially made him the most powerful leader in China.
Duan dissolved the parliament upon his return and declared war on Germany and Austria-Hungary on 14 August Around , Chinese workers volunteered for labor battalions after being enticed with money, some even years before war was declared. Some 10, died, including over on ships sunk by U-boats. Six southern provinces became part of Sun's Guangzhou military government and repelled Duan's attempt to destroy the Constitutional Protection Army.
The Constitutional Protection War continued through Many in Sun Yat-sen's Guangzhou government felt his position as the Generalissimo was too exclusionary and promoted a cabinet system to challenge Sun's ultimate authority. As a result, the Guangzhou government was reorganized to elect a seven-member cabinet system, known as the Governing Committee. Sun was once again sidelined by his political opponents and military strongmen. He left for Shanghai following the reorganization. Duan Qirui's Beijing government did not fare much better than Sun's.
Some generals in Duan's Anhui Clique and others in the Zhili clique did not want to use force to unify the southern provinces. They felt negotiation was the solution to unify China and forced Duan to resign in October. In addition, many were distressed by Duan's borrowing of huge sums of Japanese money to fund his army to fight internal enemies. President Feng Guozhang, with his term expiring, was then succeeded by Xu Shichang , who wanted to negotiate with the southern provinces. In February delegates from the northern and southern provinces convened in Shanghai to discuss postwar situations.
However, the meeting broke down over Duan's taking out Japanese loans to fund the Anhui Clique army, and further attempts at negotiation were hampered by the May Fourth Movement. The Constitutional Protection War essentially left China divided along the north-south border. In China declared war on Germany in the hope of recovering its lost province, then under Japanese control. On 4 May , there were massive student demonstrations against the Beijing government and Japan. The political fervor, student activism and iconoclastic and reformist intellectual currents set in motion by the patriotic student protest developed into a national awakening known as the May Fourth Movement.
The intellectual milieu in which the May Fourth Movement developed was known as the New Culture Movement and occupied the period — The student demonstrations of 4 May , were the high point of the New Culture Movement, and the terms are often used synonymously. Chinese representatives refused to sign the Treaty of Versailles due to intense pressure from both the student protesters and public opinion. The May Fourth Movement helped to rekindle the then-fading cause of republican revolution. In Sun Yat-sen had become commander-in-chief of a rival military government in Canton in collaboration with southern warlords.
The latter, under a succession of warlords, still maintained its facade of legitimacy and its relations with the West. By Sun had become president of the southern government. He spent his remaining years trying to consolidate his regime and achieve unity with the north.
His efforts to obtain aid from the Western democracies were fruitless, however, and in he turned to the Soviet Union , which had recently achieved its own revolution. The Soviets sought to befriend the Chinese revolutionists by offering scathing attacks on Western imperialism. For political expediency, though, the Soviet leadership initiated a dual policy of support for both Sun and the newly established Chinese Communist Party CCP.
In the Kuomintang-warlord alliance in Guangzhou was ruptured, and Sun fled to Shanghai. By then he saw the need to seek Soviet support for his cause. In a joint statement by Sun and a Soviet representative in Shanghai pledged Soviet assistance for China's national unification. Soviet advisers—the most prominent of whom was an agent of the Comintern , Mikhail Borodin —began to arrive in China in to aid in the reorganization and consolidation of the Kuomintang along the lines of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union and establish the First United Front. The CCP was under Comintern instructions to cooperate with the Kuomintang, and its members were encouraged to join while maintaining their party identities to form a "bloc within.
The policy of working with the Kuomintang and Chiang Kai-shek had been recommended by the Dutch Communist Henk Sneevliet , chosen in to be the Comintern representative in China due to his revolutionary experience in the Dutch Indies , where he had a major role in founding the Partai Komunis Indonesia PKI , and who felt that the Chinese party was too small and weak to undertake a major effort on its own.
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The CCP was still small at the time, having a membership of just in and only 1, by By contrast, the Kuomintang in already had , members. Soviet advisers also helped the Kuomintang set up a political institute to train propagandists in mass mobilization techniques, and in sent Chiang Kai-shek , one of Sun's lieutenants from Tongmenghui days, for several months' military and political study in Moscow. After Chiang's return in late , he participated in the establishment of the Whampoa Military Academy outside Guangzhou, which was the seat of government under the Kuomintang-CCP alliance.
In Chiang became head of the academy and began the rise to prominence that would make him Sun's successor as head of the Kuomintang and the unifier of all China under the right-wing Nationalist Government. Sun Yat-sen died of cancer in Beijing in March , as the Nationalist movement he had helped to initiate was gaining momentum. During the summer of Chiang, as commander-in-chief of the National Revolutionary Army , set out on the long-delayed Northern Expedition against the northern warlords.
Within nine months half of China had been conquered. By , however, the Kuomintang had divided into left- and right-wing factions, and the Communist bloc within it was also growing. In March , after thwarting a kidnapping attempt against him Zhongshan Warship Incident , Chiang abruptly dismissed his Soviet advisers, imposed restrictions on CCP members' participation in the top leadership and emerged as the pre-eminent Kuomintang leader. The Soviet Union, still hoping to prevent a split between Chiang and the CCP, ordered Communist underground activities to facilitate the Northern Expedition, which was finally launched by Chiang from Guangzhou in July In early the Kuomintang-CCP rivalry led to a split in the revolutionary ranks.
Chiang, whose Northern Expedition was proving successful, set his forces to destroying the Shanghai CCP apparatus and established an anti-Communist government at Nanjing in the Shanghai massacre of There now were three capitals in China: the internationally recognized warlord regime in Beijing; the Communist and left-wing Kuomintang regime at Wuhan; and the right-wing civilian-military regime at Nanjing, which would remain the Kuomintang capital for the next decade.
The Comintern cause appeared bankrupt. A new policy was instituted calling on the CCP to foment armed insurrections in both urban and rural areas in preparation for an expected rising tide of revolution. Unsuccessful attempts were made by Communists to take cities such as Nanchang , Changsha , Shantou and Guangzhou, and an armed rural insurrection, known as the Autumn Harvest Uprising , was staged by peasants in Hunan province.
In mid, however, the CCP's fortunes were at a low ebb. The Communists had been expelled from Wuhan by their left-wing Kuomintang allies, who in turn were toppled by a military regime. By all of China was at least nominally under Chiang's control, and the Nanjing government received prompt international recognition as the sole legitimate government of China. The Kuomintang government announced that in conformity with Sun Yat-sen's formula for the three stages of revolution—military unification, political tutelage and constitutional democracy—China had reached the end of the first phase and would embark on the second, which would be under Kuomintang direction.
The "Nanjing Decade" of was one of consolidation and accomplishment under the leadership of the Nationalists, with a mixed but generally positive record in the economy, social progress, development of democracy and cultural creativity. Some of the harsh aspects of foreign concessions and privileges in China were moderated through diplomacy.
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In May the government regained the right to set its tariff , which before then had been set by the foreign powers. The Nationalist Government also acted energetically to modernize the legal and penal systems, stabilize prices, amortize debts, reform the banking and currency systems, build railroads and highways, improve public health facilities, legislate against traffic in narcotics and augment industrial and agricultural production.
On 3 November , the government instituted the fiat currency fapi reform, immediately stabilizing prices and also raising revenues for the government. Great strides also were made in education and, in an effort to help unify Chinese society, in a program to popularize Modern Standard Chinese and overcome other varieties of Chinese. Newspapers, magazines and book publishing flourished, and the widespread establishment of communications facilities further encouraged a sense of unity and pride among the people.
Laws were passed and campaigns mounted to promote the rights of women, The ease and speed of communication also allowed a focus on social problems, including those of the villages. The Rural Reconstruction Movement was one of many which took advantage of the new freedom to raise social consciousness. On the other hand, political freedom was considerably curtailed because of the Kuomintang's one-party domination through "political tutelage" and often violent means in shutting down anti-government protests.
During this time, a series of massive wars took place in western China, including the Kumul Rebellion , the Sino-Tibetan War and the Soviet invasion of Xinjiang. Although the central government was nominally in control of the entire country during this period, large areas of China remained under the semi-autonomous rule of local warlords, provincial military leaders or warlord coalitions. Nationalist rule was strongest in the eastern regions around the capital Nanjing, but regional militarists such as Feng Yuxiang and Yan Xishan retained considerable local authority.
The Central Plains War in , the Japanese aggression in and the Red Army's Long March in led to more power for the central government, but there continued to be foot-dragging and even outright defiance, as in the Fujian Rebellion of — Few Chinese had any illusions about Japanese desires on China. Hungry for raw materials and pressed by a growing population, Japan initiated the seizure of Manchuria on 18 September and established ex-Qing emperor Puyi as head of the puppet state of Manchukuo in The loss of Manchuria, and its vast potential for industrial development and war industries, was a blow to the Kuomintang economy.
The League of Nations , established at the end of World War I, was unable to act in the face of the Japanese defiance. The Japanese began to push from south of the Great Wall into northern China and the coastal provinces. Chinese fury against Japan was predictable, but anger was also directed against Chiang and the Nanking government, which at the time was more preoccupied with anti-Communist extermination campaigns than with resisting the Japanese invaders.
The importance of "internal unity before external danger" was forcefully brought home in December , when Chiang Kai-shek, in an event now known as the Xi'an Incident , was kidnapped by Zhang Xueliang and forced to ally with the Communists against the Japanese in the Second Kuomintang-CCP United Front against Japan.
The Chinese resistance stiffened after 7 July , when a clash occurred between Chinese and Japanese troops outside Beijing then named Beiping near the Marco Polo Bridge. This skirmish led to open, though undeclared, warfare between China and Japan. Shanghai fell after a three-month battle during which Japan suffered extensive casualties, both in its army and navy.
The capital of Nanjing fell in December It was followed by an orgy of mass murders and rapes known as the Nanjing Massacre. The national capital was briefly at Wuhan , then removed in an epic retreat to Chongqing , the seat of government until In the collaborationist Wang Jingwei regime was set up with its capital in Nanjing, proclaiming itself the legitimate "Republic of China" in opposition to Chiang Kai-shek's government, though its claims were significantly hampered due to its nature as a Japanese puppet state controlling limited amounts of territory, along with its subsequent defeat at the end of the war.
After conflicts between the Kuomintang and Communists became more frequent in the areas not under Japanese control. The entrance of the United States into the Pacific War after changed the nature of their relationship. The Communists expanded their influence wherever opportunities presented themselves through mass organizations, administrative reforms and the land- and tax-reform measures favoring the peasants and the spread of their organizational network, while the Kuomintang attempted to neutralize the spread of Communist influence.
Meanwhile, northern China was infiltrated politically by Japanese politicians in Manchukuo using facilities such as Wei Huang Gong. In the Republic of China emerged from the war nominally a great military power but actually a nation economically prostrate and on the verge of all-out civil war. The economy deteriorated, sapped by the military demands of foreign war and internal strife, by spiraling inflation and by Nationalist profiteering, speculation and hoarding.
Starvation came in the wake of the war, and millions were rendered homeless by floods and the unsettled conditions in many parts of the country. The situation was further complicated by an Allied agreement at the Yalta Conference in February that brought Soviet troops into Manchuria to hasten the termination of war against Japan. Although the Chinese had not been present at Yalta, they had been consulted and had agreed to have the Soviets enter the war in the belief that the Soviet Union would deal only with the Kuomintang government. After the end of the war in August , the Nationalist Government moved back to Nanjing.
The Soviet Union, as part of the Yalta agreement allowing a Soviet sphere of influence in Manchuria, dismantled and removed more than half the industrial equipment left there by the Japanese. The Soviet presence in northeast China enabled the Communists to move in long enough to arm themselves with the equipment surrendered by the withdrawing Japanese army. The problems of rehabilitating the formerly Japanese-occupied areas and of reconstructing the nation from the ravages of a protracted war were staggering.
As an ally it embarked in late on a program of massive military and financial aid to the hard-pressed Nationalist Government. In January the United States and Britain led the way in revising their treaties with China, bringing to an end a century of unequal treaty relations. Within a few months a new agreement was signed between the United States and the Republic of China for the stationing of American troops in China for the common war effort against Japan.
The wartime policy of the United States was initially to help China become a strong ally and a stabilizing force in postwar East Asia. As the conflict between the Kuomintang and the Communists intensified, however, the United States sought unsuccessfully to reconcile the rival forces for a more effective anti-Japanese war effort. Toward the end of the war, United States Marines were used to hold Beiping Beijing and Tianjin against a possible Soviet incursion, and logistic support was given to Kuomintang forces in north and northeast China.
Through the mediating influence of the United States a military truce was arranged in January , but battles between the Kuomintang and Communists soon resumed.
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Public opinion of the administrative incompetence of the Republic of China government was escalated and incited by the Communists in the nationwide student protest against mishandling of a rape accusation in early and another national protest against monetary reforms later that year.
Realizing that no American efforts short of large-scale armed intervention could stop the coming war, the United States withdrew the American mission, headed by Gen. George Marshall , in early The Chinese Civil War became more widespread; battles raged not only for territories but also for the allegiance of cross-sections of the population.
In a similar vein, Alastair Iain Johnston suggests that Chinese foreign policy elites have been socialized by cooperative security norms and rules through their participation since the Cold War in multilateral institutions. Chinese leaders and policy elites will thus continue to be socialized by the cooperative norms of security and foreign policy decision-making.
One possible explanation may be the contingent nature of ideas and intentions as well as the non-linear socialization process. First, scholars conflate the nature of states with the behaviour of states. Therefore, according to realism, China will not be satisfied with the current international order led by the United States and become a revisionist state as it becomes bigger and stronger. However, this may not necessarily be the case, since state behaviours may or may not reflect the nature of states.
Offensive realists, such as John Mearsheimer, argue that even though all states are status quo in nature, they have to behave offensively, like revisionists, in the anarchic system in their quest for security. By the same token, a revisionist state can conceal its ambitions and behave like a status quo power if state leaders believe that it is not a good time to challenge the existing order. It is true that China has displayed an assertive turn in its diplomacy since However, the unanswered question remains that of whether or not China has indeed become a revisionist state, or if this assertive behaviour is only that of a status quo power under specific conditions.
It is important to answer the above two questions prudently and carefully. If the answer to the first scenario is yes, as most realists believe, then a balancing or even a containment policy is a good policy choice for other states to deal with a rising China. If the second scenario turns out to be true, i. In other words, a status quo China may be forced to behave aggressively if it faces too much pressure from the international system.
It is still debatable how best to assess the nature of states. Although Schweller wisely points out that there are different types of states in the system, such as revisionist versus status quo, he fails to specify criteria through which to assess the nature of states. Both realism and liberalism assume that all leaders are alike, and are rational in making decisions. Therefore, whether or not leaders have different beliefs does not matter in international politics. If a state leader harbours revisionist ambitions and perceives the nature of the political universe as conflictual, this state is likely sooner or later to become a revisionist power within the system.
If a state leader has a limited security-oriented goal and holds a cooperative worldview, the state is more likely to be a status quo power within the system. Operational code analysis is a psychological approach to leadership studies that has recently developed as a neobehavioral approach to foreign policy analysis. Is the political universe essentially one of harmony or conflict? Ole Holsti further constructed six types of operational codes for leaders. The I-1 belief indicates how leaders achieve their strategic goals, i. Similarly, we categorize two types of behaviour: assertive and moderate policies.
If the I-1 belief shows an assertive direction, it suggests that the leader is more likely to use an assertive approach to achieving goals. If the I-1 belief reflects a moderate orientation, it means that the leader is more likely to use a cooperative approach to fulfilling goals.
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Traditionally, operational code analysis relies on qualitative methods, i. It is worth noting that another key belief in operational code analysis is the P-4 belief, indicating whether a leader believes that he or she has a strong sense of control over historical development. This belief is coded continuously from weak. In contrast, a low P-4 value leader is likely to be a weak, indecisive person, easily influenced and less likely or capable of operationalizing or practising beliefs.
The P-4 belief is not included in the leadership typology with P-1 and I-1 because it is treated as an auxiliary belief whose emphasis is on the ability of leaders to exercise power. In addition, our research focuses on the nature of leadership and behaviour. With regards to whether or not and how leaders achieve their desired goals, further research paying more attention to the P-4 belief is needed. Three caveats of this research are worth noting. He took office as President in March An extensive discussion of these issues is beyond the scope of this article.
In other words, leaders will not deliver speeches and statements that do not have their consent. As for deception and manipulation of speeches, this may, realistically speaking, occasionally happen. Leaders may use a few phrases or verbs to deceive the public. For example, in order to show their peace-loving ideology, leaders may choose cooperative words to justify starting wars. However, war is war, and leaders are unable to change a war scenario no matter how carefully they choose their words.
Xi was selected to enter the Standing Committee of the Politburo in , and appointed Vice President in The major sources of these speeches and statements are the LexisNexis news database and the Chinese Foreign Affairs Ministry website. All speeches and public statements are published in English from official government sources. Purposeful rather than random sampling was applied to selecting from their available speeches, which usually exceeded one thousand words, and to analysing the aggregated sample frame. Will Xi have a different I-1 belief from Hu? Who is more likely to adopt an assertive policy to achieve his strategic goal?
Will Xi have a different P-4 belief from Hu? This much-needed work on ethnicity in Asia offers a major sociological analysis of Hui Muslims in contemporary China.
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